El Niño death map reveals where extreme heat could hit hardest

Published 14:44 28 Oct 2026 GMT

The interactive map shows where the predicted deaths from the El Niño are likely to fall

Researchers from the Climate Impact Lab have put together a map showing the predicted death toll in each country from the predicted consequences of the El Niño.

They're warning that due to the extreme heat from the El Niño they're expecting the weather event to contribute to around 857,000 total extra deaths around the world, with over 372,000 of those projected to come in the next six months.

Developing the grimly named 'El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker', they've made an interactive map where you can check out the countries of the world and see which ones have the highest predicted death tolls.

Professor Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said: "Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?

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“Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward. It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost.

Defences are being put in place against the impacts of El Niño, but the high heat is expected to be punishing (Sarah Reingewirtz/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images)

"The Tracker provides this information for the Super El Niño we’re living through today.”

Their findings have identified that the vast majority of predicted additional heat deaths from El Niño will be in the global south, with Nigeria identified as the country likely to suffer the most extra deaths.

Also predicted is that India will see a significant number of deaths at the end of the next six months, with March expected to be a particularly difficult moment for enduring the heat.

Indonesia has also been identified as another country likely to be significantly affected by the heating from El Niño, and Assistant Professor Tamma Carleton said the information they'd gathered 'highlights where action is most urgently needed'.

She said: "The data also underscore the importance of addressing extreme heat and its deadly consequences in preparing for El Niño, alongside the extensive work already underway to combat threats to food security."

The predicted additional deaths from the El Niño make for concerning reading (LADbible/Climate Impact Lab)

Nigeria, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Sudan are predicted as the countries that will lose most people as a consequence of the El Niño, and identified which regions of specific countries are most likely to be badly affected.

For example, they've got the US states of California and North Carolina both in the red zone where the predicted loss of life is highest, but elsewhere in the country the expected threat level is significantly lower.

The south of China is identified by the interactive map as a prominent danger zone, but the north of the country isn't predicted to have the same levels of destruction.

It paints a worrying picture of the impacts the El Niño will have on the world.

Featured Image Credit: Climate Impact Lab

Topics: El Niño, World News, Weather